Hvass Laboratories

Magnus Erik Hvass Pedersen

Long-Term Stock Forecasting

How does the valuation ratio of a stock affect its long-term returns? Is it possible for stocks and the entire stock-market to be over- or under-valued? In 2013 the Nobel prize in finance was partially awarded for empirical studies on this topic, although a formal explanation has never been given until now. My work formally explains how the valuation ratio matters along with growth and dividends in forecasting long-term stock-returns.

Share Buyback Valuation

Corporations worldwide spend around US$ 1 TRILLION on share buybacks every year, without knowing whether it is good or bad for shareholder value. My work provides the formulas for calculating how long-term shareholder value is affected by share buybacks in different situations.

Finance Research

  • New finance research on long-term investing, portfolio optimization, etc. written as interactive Python Notebooks with video talks.

  • Old finance research written as traditional papers.

  • I also designed and implemented the SimFin Python API and Tutorials for easily obtaining and processing financial data, and sharing your research with others.

Optimization Research

My research was on so-called Meta-Optimization where two levels of optimization are being used: The first level is optimizing a given problem as usual, while the second "meta-level" is for tuning the parameters of the optimizer in the first level. This can often lead to greatly improved results, because the meta-optimizer can find counter-intuitive parameters that cause the primary optimizer to perform much better.

TensorFlow Tutorials

In 2016 there was a revolution in Artificial Intelligence. I wanted to learn the new methods, but the documentation and tutorials were of very low quality. So I made this series of tutorials while I was learning it myself. Hundreds of thousands of people throughout the world have learned Deep Learning and TensorFlow from these tutorials, which set a new standard for how teaching materials should be made.

Contact

STOP! Please do NOT write technical questions about TensorFlow. I am NOT interested in doing small freelance projects for individuals. I am NOT interested in making new "e-mail friends". Too many people selfishly waste my time!

If a company needs my particular skills and you can afford to pay for highly original research and development, then I may consider it if you give me a clear description of the project and what exactly you need from me.

magnus (at) hvass-labs.org